Quantum Computing: The Looming Threat to Crypto

Once a hacker, now a defender, David Carvalho warns that the crypto industry is basically ignoring a looming existential threat: quantum computing.

Carvalho, who’s now the CEO of Naoris Protocol, an organization specializing in post-quantum infrastructure, began his journey into hacking on the young age of 13. Back then, he dabbled in spam emails to catch the attention of potential employers. That early curiosity eventually transformed right into a profession in cybersecurity, where he used his skills to guard systems slightly than infiltrate them. Nowadays, Carvalho is targeted on constructing quantum-resilient systems for decentralized networks, and he argues that the cryptographic underpinnings of popular blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum are seriously outdated.

Quantum Computing: The Meteor Heading for Crypto

“The cryptography behind nearly every chain is as fragile as the world’s other cryptographic systems,” Carvalho said in an interview with Cointelegraph. “Quantum will come for everything, much like meteors did for the dinosaurs.”

While developers of Bitcoin and other blockchains often argue that there is ample time to adapt, the window for implementing quantum-resistant signatures may be closing faster than anticipated. Though efforts are underway, Carvalho indicates that they lack the urgency the situation demands.

Recent tech breakthroughs suggest quantum computing hasn’t yet put Bitcoin’s security in danger. Source: Kevin Rose

Harvest Now, Decrypt Later: The Quantum Threat is Real

For a few years, the thought that quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin appeared like something out of a sci-fi novel. However, developments in the actual world indicate that this threat is moving from theory to practice. Governments and tech giants are already gearing up for the “harvest now, decrypt later” approach. Since 2022, U.S. federal agencies, including the National Institute of Standards and Technology, have highlighted the urgency of adopting quantum-resistant algorithms. A White House memorandum has even prompted the NSA to advise government contractors to change to post-quantum cryptography by 2035.

Today’s quantum technology is not yet able to cracking Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hash function or the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) that secures crypto keys. But experts like Carvalho warn that significant breakthroughs—especially when combined with AI—could occur suddenly. State-backed actors and cybercriminal groups are already amassing encrypted blockchain data, planning to decrypt it once the technology catches up.

“Those adversaries collecting encrypted blockchain data now aren’t waiting to strike today,” Carvalho stated. “They’re preparing for the future. Once the tech is ready, they’ll unlock years of secrets in mere minutes.”

Despite these warnings, many throughout the Bitcoin community don’t view quantum computing as a direct threat and are not alarmed.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes quantum threats to Bitcoin aren’t likely inside the subsequent decade. Source: Adam Back

Bitcoin’s current cryptography remains to be seen as robust against existing quantum machines, and developers are exploring solutions like BIP-360, which proposes quantum-resistant addresses. Projects corresponding to Carvalho’s Naoris Protocol are also striving to assist blockchains transition to post-quantum cryptographic standards.

The Unseen Danger: Quantum Meets AI

While most discussions about quantum threats concentrate on brute-force attacks on cryptographic keys, Carvalho believes the actual peril arises from the fusion of quantum computing and artificial intelligence. Together, they may enable stealthy, asymmetric attacks that don’t depend on overwhelming power but slightly on precision and stealth.

“Everyone’s waiting for a countdown that won’t come. You won’t get a warning when a decade-old Bitcoin wallet is compromised. You’ll just notice the funds have moved, and no one will know how or by whom,” Carvalho explained.

AI is already a staple in cybersecurity—used for intrusion detection, smart contract auditing, and anomaly detection. But within the improper hands, these tools could possibly be flipped. An AI attacker could routinely scan open-source wallets for bugs, simulate validator responses, and adapt in real-time to network behaviors. If coupled with a quantum computer able to breaking elliptic-curve private keys, the result would not be a loud breach, but what Carvalho calls a “silent collapse.”

“This isn’t just about stealing coins,” he emphasized. “It’s about eroding trust invisibly. Entire blockchains could be compromised, governance systems spoofed, and no one would know who did it or how.”

Approximately 25% of Bitcoin is stored in older address formats, making it vulnerable to quantum attacks.

AI-driven tests have exposed vulnerabilities in cryptographic libraries that traditional tools often miss. When combined with adversaries stockpiling encrypted data under the “harvest now, decrypt later” model, the groundwork for a systemic breach may already be in place.

Carvalho warned that if left unaddressed, this might mark Bitcoin’s true apocalypse—not a dramatic, livestreamed cracking of SHA-256, but a slow, silent erosion of the trust layers that hold the system together.

Bitcoin’s Achilles’ Heel: Centralized Infrastructure

Despite the talk of Bitcoin’s decentralization, its real-world infrastructure stays highly centralized. Cloud platforms, mining pools, and validator networks all present vulnerable chokepoints that quantum-capable adversaries could exploit. If a single cloud provider hosting a whole bunch of full nodes is compromised, the repercussions could spread throughout all the network, no matter how decentralized the protocol itself claims to be.

“Decentralization sounds great on paper, but if everyone’s routing through the same few backbones or relying on a handful of third-party APIs, the game is already lost.”

The quantum threat could exploit the blind spots within the systems surrounding it: centralized infrastructure, aging technology, and trust assumptions.

Some projects are proactively preparing. Carvalho’s Naoris, for instance, draws on national security frameworks to construct decentralized systems designed for a post-quantum world. Others are developing quantum-resistant rollups, recent key formats, and protocol upgrades through Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) or leveraging inherently secure technologies like StarkWare’s STARKs.

The threat is approaching, however the response can also be growing. The query stays whether the crypto ecosystem will act before it’s too late.