Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating an uncertain path as the United States presidential election draws near. The race, characterized by a close contest between Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, has captured global attention. This political standoff introduces a layer of volatility to the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin could hit $80-90K if Trump wins
Analysts at Bernstein predict a significant surge in Bitcoin’s price, potentially reaching $80,000-90,000, if Trump emerges victorious. This optimistic forecast is largely attributed to Trump’s favorable stance on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, which he has emphasized during his electoral rallies.
Source: X
Trump’s proposals include appointing a crypto-friendly chairperson for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to reduce regulatory burdens, creating a national Bitcoin reserve, and establishing the U.S. as a central hub for Bitcoin mining. Such measures are seen as catalysts for a bullish Bitcoin market.
Bernstein’s projections align with historical patterns, where Bitcoin tends to hit new all-time highs following U.S. presidential elections, particularly when they coincide with Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur roughly every four years.
For example, after the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin surged from approximately $12 to $1,150 by late 2013—a remarkable increase of nearly 9,500%. Similarly, the second halving in mid-2016 was followed by a strong rally, with Bitcoin climbing from around $650 to nearly $20,000 by December 2017, marking a gain of over 3,000% from pre-halving levels.
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: Moustache
The third cycle continued this trend, with Bitcoin rising from about $9,000 post the May 2020 halving to a new high of $69,000 in November 2021.
Related: Crypto whales bet big on Trump win ahead of US election
The recent completion of the fourth halving in April 2024, coupled with the upcoming election on November 5, suggests potential upward movement toward Bernstein’s $80,000-90,000 target.
In October, Bernstein had also predicted a Bitcoin rally toward $200,000 by 2025, independent of the election results.
Bitcoin will see “instant dump” on a Harris win
Market analyst Miles Deutscher offers a different perspective, suggesting Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or higher regardless of the election winner, although the trajectory and timing would vary. Deutscher believes a Harris victory would trigger an “instant dump” in Bitcoin’s market, driven by concerns that her administration might impose stricter regulations on cryptocurrencies.
Source: X
This outlook is supported by increasing Polymarket bids anticipating a Bitcoin price drop in November, with strong bets on a decline to $65,000, reflecting a 75% implied probability for reaching that level.
Bids on Bitcoin price target for November. Source: Polymarket
Bitcoin to $100K by November’s end?
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s most profitable month since 2013, delivering an average return of 46%. This historical performance has led analyst Lark Davis to predict a similar upside in 2024.
“A 46% rise from current prices would propel BTC to $104,000,” Davis noted in a recent post on X.
BTC/USD three-day price chart. Source: Lark Davis
The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 7, with speculation of a 25-basis-point rate cut, could further enhance Bitcoin’s upward potential, possibly driving it toward Bernstein’s $80,000-90,000 target.
The convergence of Bitcoin’s historically strong November performance, the anticipated Fed rate cut, and the pro-crypto narrative surrounding Trump’s candidacy are factors creating an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin this month.
Bitcoin’s price increased by 0.25% in the last 24 hours to reach approximately $68,760 on November 4, although it remains down 7.35% from its local high of $73,600 recorded a week prior.
BTC Futures open interest. Source: Coinglass
The decline in BTC price coincides with a $1.1 billion drop in the futures market’s open interest, resulting in the liquidation of roughly $300 million worth of positions, indicating that many traders are reducing exposure ahead of the November 5 election.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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