When you’d thrown $1,000 at Netflix in 2015, you’d be sitting on about $10,000 at this time.
Again in 2015, Netflix (NFLX) was nonetheless shaking off its DVD-by-mail picture and betting huge on streaming and authentic content material. Quick-forward a decade, and it’s gone from a scrappy disruptor to an business heavyweight, with a inventory worth over $1,000.
Whereas legacy media giants like Disney, Warner Brothers and Paramount have struggled to adapt, Netflix rewrote the principles — after which performed the sport higher than anybody else.
Let’s break down precisely how a lot $1,000 invested in Netflix in 2015 can be value at this time — and why the streaming large’s story is way from over.
What a $1,000 Netflix funding 10 years in the past can be value at this time
Let’s take a fast time machine journey again to July 27, 2015 — proper after the final inventory spit. Netflix inventory was buying and selling at about $106.43 a share. When you dropped $1,000 on Netflix again then, you’d’ve walked away with 9.4 shares. (Fractional shares weren’t broadly obtainable in 2015 however let’s simply fake they had been.)
Quick ahead to April 25, 2025, and those self same 9.4 shares can be value a jaw-dropping $10,354, with Netflix inventory closing at $1,101.53 per share at this time. That’s a 935 p.c return in your preliminary funding.
In different phrases, should you’d put your cash the place your distant is a decade in the past, your funding would have crushed the S&P, outpaced competitors by an extended shot and 10x’d your money.
That sounds spectacular however let’s put that in context. When you’d as a substitute determined to again extra conventional media corporations, your features — or fairly your losses — would inform a really completely different story.
- Disney (DIS): A $1,000 funding in 2015 would now be value simply $733 — a 26.7 p.c loss.
- Warner Bros. (WBD): $1,000 would have shrunk to $264 — down 73.5 p.c.
- Paramount (PARA): That funding can be value about $223 at this time — a staggering 77.8 p.c loss.
The distinction is stark. Netflix didn’t simply outperform different streaming shares — it left them within the mud.
How Netflix grew to become an leisure powerhouse
Netflix did one factor legacy gamers didn’t — it didn’t cling to the previous.
Netflix pivoted early into streaming, and by 2015, it was already shifting away from licensed content material and doubling down on originals. That call rapidly paid off. Constructing off the success of “Home of Playing cards” and “Orange is the New Black in 2013, “Stranger Issues” hit in 2016, adopted by large hits equivalent to “The Crown,” “Ozark” and “Narcos,” locking in binge-happy subscribers who didn’t wish to wait per week for brand spanking new episodes.
The pandemic helped, too. Whereas the world was caught inside, Netflix grew to become the go-to streaming platform. It added 37 million subscribers in 2020 alone. The corporate additionally noticed its inventory soar from $364 a share in April 2020 to $545 per share by the top of the yr.
In the meantime, opponents had been nonetheless taking part in catch-up. Disney+ took practically 5 years to show a revenue. Warner Bros. (which owns HBO Max) went by way of a number of technique pivots. Paramount struggled to achieve streaming share because it navigated CEO shakeups and merger talks.
In contrast to conventional media giants, Netflix didn’t have to fret about field workplace numbers or cable bundles. It didn’t want a TV community or a theater.
As Morningstar analyst Matthew Dolgin put it in an April 20 be aware: “[Netflix] was the pioneer in its business, offering it an enormous head begin in accumulating subscribers and shifting previous the large preliminary money burn that we see as crucial to construct a profitable streaming service.”
Is Netflix a $1 trillion inventory?
Solely seven U.S. corporations have a market cap of $1 trillion or extra. Netflix isn’t there but, however with a present $468.8 million market cap and rising business dominance, it’s inside putting distance.
Executives aren’t hiding their ambitions both. Throughout the firm’s newest earnings name, co-CEO Gregory Peters stated, “We do have huge long-term aspirations and people aspirations are actually grounded within the potential for development that we see within the enterprise.”
Right here’s what may get Netflix into the trillion-dollar name.
Tariff-proof international attain
Netflix’s funding in worldwide content material has helped it unlock large development past the U.S. It’s spent billions on local-language productions throughout Asia, Latin America and Europe, providing country-specific authentic content material in 50 international locations.
With 300 million paying subscribers throughout the globe, Netflix now has the biggest streaming subscriber base on the planet by a large margin. And lots of areas — together with Europe, the Center East and Africa — nonetheless have vital room to develop.
Rising advert income
Netflix launched its ad-supported tier in 2022, and though promoting at present makes up a small slice of its total income, the potential is big. Throughout a name with shareholders in April, executives stated they plan to double promoting income in 2025 alone.
As subscriber development within the U.S. tapers off, promoting offers Netflix a brand new edge. In spite of everything, the inspiration is already there: Netflix has a large international subscriber base and sticky engagement — two issues advertisers are determined for because the demise knell of cable tolls.
“Promoting-supported subscriptions will open Netflix to a brand new base of subscribers and a significant new income,” wrote Dolgin.
As a part of its push to scale its promoting enterprise, Netflix launched its personal advert tech platform on April 1, shifting away from third-party companions like Microsoft.
Proudly owning its personal advert tech may give Netflix extra management over focusing on, measurement and reporting — key instruments for attracting main advert {dollars}. The U.S. launch additionally strategically aligns with the spring upfronts, a time when advertisers commit huge budgets for the yr forward.
It’s constructed to outlive a recession
Netflix is broadly thought of a recession-resilient firm, if not absolutely recession-proof. For underneath $20 a month, it offers lots of of hours of leisure, providing quite a lot of worth to budget-conscious customers throughout exhausting instances. Traders love that form of consistency and predictability.
Earnings are scaling rapidly
Netflix isn’t simply rising — it’s changing into considerably extra worthwhile.
In Q1 2025, the corporate beat expectations and posted a 47 p.c soar in working revenue over the earlier quarter. The enterprise is changing into extra environment friendly, extra predictable and extra worthwhile — which Wall Avenue rewards.
Morningstar tasks working margins will rise from 27 p.c in 2024 to almost 35 p.c by 2030. Free money circulate is predicted to greater than double from $7 billion in 2024 to $18 billion by decade’s finish. Morningstar can be forecasting 10 p.c common annual income development over the subsequent 5 years.
That each one aligns properly with the targets specified by the corporate’s newest shareholder letter: Maintain wholesome income development, increase working margin and ship rising free money circulate.
Is Netflix going to separate its inventory?
Netflix hasn’t cut up its inventory in a decade, however given the corporate’s constant development, it wouldn’t be shocking if it occurred quickly.
The corporate has solely cut up its inventory twice since going public in 2002. The primary time was a 2-for-1 cut up on February 2004. The second and most up-to-date was a 7-for-1 cut up in July 2015 when the inventory had rocketed as much as round $700.
At present, the inventory is at or hovering close to all-time highs of over $1,000 a share.
Whereas Netflix hasn’t stated something publicly, historical past suggests it may very well be due for a cut up. A inventory cut up doesn’t change the basics, although — it’s like breaking a $20 invoice into two $10s — nevertheless it does make shares look cheaper, which tends to draw extra retail traders. That would give Netflix one other shot of momentum.
Backside line
A $1,000 funding in Netflix in 2015 can be value greater than $10,000 at this time. That’s what betting on a category-defining disruptor appears like. Whereas Disney and different friends struggled to pivot, Netflix leaned into its strengths and constructed a world empire.
As Morningstar put it: “[Netflix] has no legacy belongings which might be shedding worth as society transitions to new methods of consuming video leisure at residence.”
And based mostly on its momentum, Netflix is simply getting began.
Editorial Disclaimer: All traders are suggested to conduct their very own unbiased analysis into funding methods earlier than investing choice. As well as, traders are suggested that previous funding product efficiency is not any assure of future worth appreciation.
