Bitcoin Bounces Back: The Cryptocurrency Journey
Key points:
- Bitcoin’s bounce from $100,000 shows buyers are committed to the overarching bull trend.
- Select altcoins have broken below respective support levels, suggesting further weakness for mid-caps in the near term.
The Bitcoin Resilience
Bitcoin (BTC) has managed to stay above the psychological barrier of $100,000, demonstrating the unwavering commitment of buyers to the ongoing bull market. Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, expressed a positive outlook, noting that Bitcoin’s current weakness is temporary and does not compromise its status as a safe haven asset.
Unlike many top U.S. stocks, Bitcoin has shown relative stability during the current geopolitical turmoil, signaling its maturation as a valuable asset class. Bitwise Europe Head of Research, André Dragosch, highlighted on X that Bitcoin’s 60-day realized volatility stands at 27-28%, which is lower than the S&P 500 Index’s 30%, the Nasdaq 100’s 35%, and the “Magnificent 7” technology stocks’ close to 40%.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360
Despite not setting a new high, institutional investors remain undeterred and continue to invest in Bitcoin. CoinShares reported that Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced $1.1 billion in inflows during the trading week ending Friday. These inflows, even amidst a decline in spot prices, indicate that investors are taking advantage of the dip.
Bitcoin’s Future: Bullish or Bearish?
The big question is whether sellers will manage to drag Bitcoin back below $100,000 or if buyers will push the price higher. Let’s dive into the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to understand their movements.
S&P 500 Index Forecast
The S&P 500 Index has retracted to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 5,950, signaling selling pressure from bears in the 6,000 to 6,147 range.
If the index falls and remains below the 20-day EMA, it could drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 5,747. Buyers are likely to defend this level fiercely, as a breach could lead to further declines to 5,580. The deeper the pullback, the longer it might take for the upward trend to resume.
On the other hand, if the index rebounds off the 20-day EMA and surpasses 6,060, it could retest the all-time high at 6,147. A breakthrough here would signal the next leg of the uptrend toward 6,500.
US Dollar Index Predictions
The bears’ inability to keep the price below the 97.92 support has prompted a bounce that has reached the moving averages.
The 20-day EMA at 98.92 is flattening, and the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests decreasing selling pressure. This increases the chance of a break above the 50-day SMA at $99.48, potentially leading the index to 100.54 and then to the 102 resistance level.
If bears wish to maintain control, they must defend the moving averages and quickly pull the price below the immediate support at 98.48. A successful effort could lead to a retest of the crucial support at 97.60.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin dipped below the crucial $100,000 support on Sunday, but bulls quickly bought the dip, as evidenced by the long tail on the candlestick.
While bulls initiated a relief rally, they are encountering resistance at higher levels. Should the price drop from the current level or the moving averages, bears might attempt to push and sustain the BTC/USDT pair below $100,000. Success could see the pair tumble to $93,000.
Conversely, if buyers manage to push the price above the moving averages, the pair could rally towards the downtrend line. Strong defense is expected between the downtrend line and the all-time high of $111,980.
Ether Price Analysis
Ether (ETH) rebounded from the $2,111 support on Sunday, showcasing strong demand at lower levels.
Bulls are attempting to drive the price above the $2,323 breakdown level but face significant resistance. A downturn from $2,323 heightens the risk of a break below $2,111, possibly collapsing the ETH/USDT pair to $1,754.
However, if buyers manage to push the price above the 20-day EMA at $2,467, it suggests the $2,111 level could become a new floor, potentially propelling the pair to $2,738.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP (XRP) dropped below the $2 support on Sunday, but bulls bought the dip, as seen by the long tail on the candlestick.
Bears are likely to resist the relief rally at the 20-day EMA of $2.15. A downturn from the current level or the 20-day EMA could see the XRP/USDT pair drop to the $1.61 support.
Conversely, a break above the 20-day EMA indicates the market rejected the move below $2, potentially leading the pair to the 50-day SMA at $2.26, extending its range between $2 to $2.65 for a while longer.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB (BNB) fell below the $634 support on Saturday, resolving the range-bound action in favor of the bears.
The BNB/USDT pair bounced off the $600 support on Sunday, but recovery is expected to face selling at the $634 breakdown level. A downturn from $634 suggests bears have turned the level into resistance, increasing the chances of a drop to the strong support at $580.
Buyers must drive the price above the moving averages to avert the downside move. Success could see the pair rise to $675.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) broke below the $140 support on Saturday, extending its decline near the $123 support on Sunday.
Buyers are initiating recovery, which may encounter resistance at the $140 breakdown level and then at the 20-day EMA of $147. A downturn from the overhead zone suggests bears might resume the downtrend. Should the $123 level break, the SOL/USDT pair could fall to $110.
However, if buyers manage to push the price above the 20-day EMA, it indicates strong demand at lower levels, potentially rallying the pair to the 50-day SMA.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been oscillating
Image Credit: cointelegraph.com
